The Weighted Journey Model

Quarterly weights. Real outcomes.

What this is

For executives: every guest gets a journey score, every channel gets assist value, and each quarter you move budget from low-impact touches to high-impact ones.

A plain-English playbook for turning many touches into one simple score you can act on. Treat attribution like capital allocation. Fund what moves a guest. Keep it simple for stores.

Why dealers use it

• First and last touch hide most of the journey. This model shows assist value.
• Weights adapt by quarter and by market, so spend follows real behavior.
• Output is simple. A ranked list for the BDC and clear budget moves for leadership.

What to track

Your list can be large. You can track as many as 60 touchpoints or more. Decide the right set for your stores and markets, and capture as many touchpoints as possible in each stage. A CDP helps by ingesting touches from many systems so you can run journey scoring and attribution with confidence.

The stages, with the kinds of events that belong in each:

• Awareness. Marketplace search views, social clicks, a visit from your Google Business profile.
• Consideration. Quality search and vehicle-page sessions, a video played past ten seconds, a saved or compared vehicle.
• Intent. A trade-in started or submitted, the payment calculator opened, a pre-qualification or a form submitted.
• Live contact. A call that connects for a minute, a chat handed to a human.
• Appointment. Set, then shown.
• Transact. Deposit paid, documents signed, sold.
• Ownership. Repair orders opened and closed, a survey answered.

Each of these maps cleanly onto the Automotive Standards Council event names, so a group that has adopted ASC already has most of the plumbing.

Base stage weights

Later-stage actions get higher weights. A starting point:

• Awareness 0.3
• Consideration 0.6
• Intent 1.0
• Live contact 1.2
• Appointment set 1.6
• Appointment show 2.0
• Transact steps 2.4

How scoring works

Per-event score = base weight × market multiplier × time decay × frequency cap, plus a sequence bonus where one applies.

• Base weight. The default importance of a stage, as above.
• Market multiplier. A regional adjustment, so metro and rural are not forced into one pattern. Start between 0.9 and 1.1 by region and refit quarterly from lift against last quarter.
• Time decay. Recent touches count more and older touches fade. A half-life of two to four weeks works well.
• Frequency cap. Avoid over-crediting repeated identical actions. Cap at one or two per type per day, or use diminishing returns.
• Sequence bonus. Extra credit for proven ordered pairs that lift shows or sales, such as marketplace to vehicle page to trade-in within 48 hours. Validate with a geo split before you trust it.

Quarterly re-weight and proof

• Refit weights each quarter on last quarter’s paths to sale.
• Validate with a geo split or suppression test before moving budget.
• Publish weights per region. Do not change them mid-quarter unless a test proves material lift.

What the store actually sees

• A daily journey-score list of top prospects, each with a recommended action.
• Creative guidance that matches the stage. Education early. Proof in the middle. Offer late.

What you need to start

• An identity spine across site, CRM and DMS. An email or phone hash is fine.
• Standard event names across rooftops, each carrying VIN, store, campaign and timestamp.
• The appointment chain: lead to set, set to show, show to sold.

An example

A shopper in a metro region:

• Vehicle page view yesterday (consideration): 0.6 × 1.1 × 0.9 = 0.59
• Trade-in started the same day (intent): 1.0 × 1.1 × 0.95 = 1.05
• Chat handed to a human today (live contact): 1.2 × 1.1 × 1.0 = 1.32
• Proven pattern bonus, marketplace to vehicle page to trade-in within 48 hours: +0.5

Total journey score: 3.46.

Operator tip

Keep the math at the group level. Give stores a short list and a play. Measure on shows and sold.

What you need from vendors

From your CDP or data team: a clean identity spine, standard event names across rooftops with VIN, store, campaign and timestamp, and a quarterly refresh of weights with a simple lift report tied to the budget changes.